Saturday, May 23, 2009

A Perfect Storm

The news of Mike Keenan’s firing in Calgary today did not affect me personally, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized how bad this is for Devils fans. Things appear to be lining up almost too perfectly for a deathblow.

Don’t think Brent Sutter, currently in the midst of his yearly offseason evaluation, is going to seriously consider this Calgary job? Before you answer, consider the following:

1. Location, Location, Location.
The Sutters live in Red Deer, Alberta, almost exactly halfway between Edmonton and…yup…Calgary. If one of Brent’s issues is the distance from his family, which makes more sense, traveling across the continent to New Jersey, or a quick shot down Highway 2?

2. Brotherly Love
Brent’s brother Daryl is currently the Flames’ GM. You don’t think he’ll pull a Doug Wilson and at least consider hiring his dear brother? The Sutters are of the same head, they think the same way. It’s a similar bond that Sutter has to Lou Lamoriello, except for the being related part.

3. Workin’ Hard, or Hardly Workin’?
Everything about the Calgary Flames makes the situation hard to ignore for Brent. Despite having an all-star goaltender, a franchise player, and a capable veteran core surrounded by young talent, perhaps Brent can push the right buttons and get this team over its apparent hump. The Flames haven’t won a playoff series since the run to the Finals in 2004. While Sutter hasn’t won a playoff series with the Devils either, the thought may occur in the heads of both that by combining these two snake-bitten forces, success can be found.

In my opinion, Brent Sutter is the perfect coach for the Devils, and I really hope he doesn’t leave, at least until he finishes out the last year of his contract coming up this season, and I hope he stays far longer than that. But it would be foolish to look at all the variables that appear to be lining up and say that there isn’t a possibility of Sutter resigning and taking the Calgary job. Unfortunately, it’s more possible than we’d like to think.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Devils Top Five Drafts

Since Lou Lamoriello took over as Devils General Manager in 1987, the Devils have earned a reputation as one of the best evaluators of draft talent in the NHL. Between Lamoriello and Director of Scouting David Conte—whom Lamoriello would contend really runs the show on draft day—save for an unfortunate stretch between 1999 and 2002, the Devils have always come through when it comes to making the most of their draft picks.

But when evaluating the top five drafts in Devils history, it is important to evaluate a draft year based on both quality and quantity. This criteria is the reason that a few select drafts—namely Zach Parise in that incredible 2003 draft, as well as Scott Niedermayer and Brian Rolston in 1991—have been left off the list. Despite the aforementioned being quality draft picks, all of whom paid off, the draft classes from those years on the whole was rather nondescript. Keeping this rule in mind, here are the top five draft classes in Devils history:

5. 1990
Other than drafting Martin Brodeur 20th overall—and believe it or not the Devils traded DOWN for this one—the 1990 draft landed the Devils a few other pieces. Despite having four capable goaltenders in the system and having just added a fifth in Brodeur, the Devils also took goaltenders Mike Dunham (53rd) and Corey Schwab (200th), both of whom would later serve as Brodeur’s backups in the late 1990s and early 2000s, respectively. Though three defensemen—Brad Bombardir, Chris McAlpine, and Jaroslav Modry—did not play the best hockey of their careers in New Jersey, all three went on to become reliable NHLers. Finally, at 221st overall, the Devils picked up Valeri Zelepukin, a key component to the Devils’ playoff run in 1994 and Stanley Cup in 1995.

4. 1998
The draft of 1998 did contain an ultimate bust in Christian Berglund, but it also landed the Devils four quality NHL players, two of whom made their name in Jersey. With back to back first round picks at 26th and 27th, the Devils nabbed Mike Van Ryn and Scott Gomez. Van Ryn did not play a single game for the Devils, but has put together a solid NHL career, while Gomez burst onto the scene in 2000, winning the Stanley Cup and Calder Trophy, and adding a second Cup in 2003. Brian Gionta (82nd) has had some impressive seasons as a Devil, including 2005-06, where he set the current franchise record for most goals in one season at 48. Despite his numbers steadily declining since, he has remained a top six forward. Pierre Dagenais (105th) looked promising in the AHL, but put together a quiet career in the NHL, playing minimal games for a few teams before settling into the German league.

3. 1994
Out of 12 draft picks made in 1994, 3 ultimately became quality NHL talent. After 25th overall pick Vadim Sharifijanov, who never really caught on in the NHL, the Devils struck gold twice, drafting Patrik Elias at 51st and Sheldon Souray at 71st. Elias has gone on to become the Devils’ all-time leading scorer, while Souray really found his game in Montreal, but has become a top-two defenseman. Finally, at 233rd, the Devils took the gritty Steve Sullivan, who has put together a respectable NHL career, and become a fan favorite in Nashville.

2. 2008
It’s always difficult to rank a draft class before it has time to pan out, but based on everything that has been reported about the Devils’ first four picks, all indications are it has the potential to go down as one of the best. Mattias Tedenby is a pure sniper, and the only thing standing between him and a successful NHL career is adjusting to the North American game. Brandon Burlon looks to be a fixture on future Devils defenses, alongside Tyler Eckford and Matt Corrente. Patrice Cormier is a solid all-around forward, and if the present is any indication, the future is bright for him, as well as Adam Henrique. Time will tell, but barring something unforseen, the 2008 draft class could easily go down as one of the best.

1. 1983
In just their second draft in team history, the Devils landed themselves the best combination of quantity and quality of talent to date. It began with John MacLean at 6th overall. MacLean, now an assistant coach with the Devils, would play every subsequent season right up to his trade to San Jose in 1997, winning the 1995 Stanley Cup along the way. MacLean held the Devils’ all-time scoring title until Patrik Elias passed him in 2009, and to this day holds or shares 10 Devils franchise records. At 85th, goaltender Chris Terreri came aboard, and Terreri would remain a fixture in the Devils’ net. Terreri was around for the breakouts of Sean Burke and Martin Brodeur, won the 1995 Cup as the backup, and went off on his own before returning to backup Brodeur one last time when the Devils won their second Cup in 2000. Terreri now works as the goaltending coach in AHL Lowell. Viacheslav Fetisov, one of the first Soviet players to enter the NHL, did not break in until 1989, but it was in 1983 that the Devils selected him with the 145th pick. Fetisov was on hand for the 1994 playoff run, but would play against the Devils in the 1995 Finals as a member of the Red Wings, where he would cement his NHL legacy. Now a hall-of-famer, Fetisov is Russia’s minister of sport, and to this day remains one of the greatest defenseman in NHL history. Compared to the other three, Alexei Kasatonov (225th) put together a mild career, but far outlived his value as the last Devils choice in the draft. Kasatonov’s real success came as a member of the Russian national team, winning one Olympic silver medal and two golds.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Offseason 09: Headlines

All is quiet in the world of the Devils right now. Fans and players alike have one eye on next season while the other looks back at the year that was with a disgruntled groan of frustration. There has been a distinctly empty stretch since the team cleaned out their lockers, not that this is unexpected. So while Devils fans watch their lesser sports and wait for some news, here is a brief update of what has happened in the world of the Devils since they packed up and took another team picture that won’t surface until next winter thanks to some very lazy web designers.

May 12: Devils owner Jeff Vanderbeek ranked NHL’s second best owner by SI.com
No one’s ever had a bad thing to say about Vanderbeek, at least since it was a forgone conclusion where our new arena would be placed…but even so, I have to admit I was surprised at 2nd place. Not because he’s not a great owner, he really is…but one of the other top-5ers in particular could have taken second place and it would not have been surprising either. Mario Lemieux not only displaced contract money as a player to keep the Penguins financially stable, he also kept them in Pittsburgh and away from Jim Balsillie, all while a new arena finally got started. But I’m happy for Jeff and he really does deserve to be placed right under Detroit’s Illitch family. Any owner who would stand at Newark Penn Station handing out playoff towels to the fans deserves to be recognized.

May 12: Gionta’s Predicament and and Lamoriello’s Biggest Failure as GM
Jack Vallon at Bleacher Report examines why Gionta and Parise have reason to follow Gomez, and wouldn’t blame them for thinking about bolting to the Rangers. He puts into words what every Devil fan should have been thinking for the past two years: Really, Lou? You replaced Scott Gomez with…Dainius Zubrus? Zubrus is hardly a second line center, as the powers that be seem to think he is. Great, he had a career year the season before the Devils signed him, but he was also playing on a line with ALEX OVECHKIN! I didn’t think it took a rocket scientist to figure out that anyone could put up impressive numbers with Ovie as their winger. But back to Vallon: This writer has made me a fan, especially for constructing the best Dainius Zubrus analogy of all time:

“Putting Zubrus with Gio and Patty is like plopping a slice of processed American cheese on a platter of grilled prime rib-eye and slow matured, dry-aged sirloin steak, and expecting it to work for you.”

Pure. Brilliance. And very true, as well. I’d bet anything that if Sutter had actually given an Elias-Rolston-Gionta line time to gel, they most certainly would have. Giving them one game together is no way to examine all your options. Brent, I think you’re terrific, but let’s be real here for a second. Dainius Zubrus should be on the fourth line, third if he’s having a hot streak. That’s all he’ll ever be, and every second you put him on the top two lines is a second in the lives of Patrik Elias and Brian Gionta that they will never get back.

May 12: Devils AHL prospects 2008-09 review
HockeysFuture.com is a great website which chronicles the development of every team’s prospects. I’ve noticed, however, that despite the Devils’ ability to continue to churn out great drafts and prospects, the website always ranks the Devils in the bottom two in the league in terms of best crop of talent waiting in the wings. This year, we come in at a respectable disgraceful 30th. Read their explanation and see if you don’t just get the same question in your heads that I did:

“Strengths: Mattias Tedenby, acquired in the 2008 Entry Draft, joins fellow countryman Nicklas Bergfors at the top of the list of New Jersey Devils prospects. Both are exceptionally gifted and well-rounded players. Beneath them, however, viable top-six forwards are scarce. Matt Halischuk and Mike Hoeffel are part of a quality cast of checking forwards. The Devils also boast a fairly deep and diverse group of blueliners, from the gritty Matt Corrente and Mark Fraser, to Brandon Burlon and Anssi Salmela (note: you really couldn’t update this an entire month after Salmela was traded?). The Devils organization possesses size throughout. Weaknesses: A significant problem for the Devils is their lack of quality prospects between the pipes. The Devils haven’t drafted any goaltenders since 2005, when they took Jeff Frazee. Once highly touted, he was unseated as Minnesota’s starting netminder and turned pro early. He is off to a decent start so far as a pro.”

Doesn’t sound so bad, right? Their only true knock on us is a lack of goaltending depth, and hey they’re kinda right. Jeff Frazee is currently our only shot at a homegrown goalie of the future. Granted, Frazee had an incredible season in 08-09, but certainly won’t be ready to break the NHL for another few years, and if he doesn’t pan out, we’ve literally got nothing. But is that alone really enough to rank us DEAD LAST? Calgary’s system was described as “incredibly thin everywhere but between the pipes,” yet they land 28th. Colorado’s cupboard is as empty and vast as the Colorado River, and yet they earn a mildly respectable 18th. The article itself paints a rosy picture of quality talent coming up from all areas: Frazee, Matt Corrente, Tyler Eckford, Matt Halischuk, Nicklas Bergfors, Mattias Tedenby, Alex Vasyunov, Mark Fraser, and Pierre-Luc Leblond. The only negative aspect of the entire review was Petr Vrana, who missed most of the season with a broken leg, and let’s face it, that makes it pretty hard to play hockey. I didn’t read any other team’s report, but surely for all the positive words written about the Devils of the future, that can’t possibly still mean we’re as bad as it gets in the NHL, can it?

May 13: Ken Daneyko will host radio discussion with Rangers bad boy Sean Avery
Dano and former Ranger Ron Duguay host a weekly radio show on Siruis-XM, and Sean Avery was this week’s guest. I have not heard this show, but Ron most have pleaded with Dano beforehand, and I say that because Sean is still alive. Disheartening, I know, but Avery was apparently not at all like himself during the course of the day, so Dano probably had no reason get angry at him. Still…disheartening.

May 14: Niclas Havelid signs to play next season for Linkoping in the Swedish Elite League.
…And may I be the first to say, thank you dear god. I would have accepted him signing with another NHL team, but I’m sure he realizes, as we all do, that if the choices are returning to New Jersey—where he not only couldn’t fit in but stuck out like a sore thumb, or returning to Atlanta—or as I like to call them Ilya Kovalchuk and the Chicago Wolves, he might as well go play in his home country and the third best league in the world. Havelid’s departure leaves the Devils with $2.7 mil that thankfully will not be wasted on him, hopefully leaving us that much more to put toward keeping the only Swedish defenseman that matters to us, Johnny Oduya.

May 14: Sutter no closer to decision on his future with the Devils
Brent Sutter is relaxing in Red Deer, evaluating his position as he does every year. This has gotten him into a lot of heat with both media and fans, who interpret this as a sign that Sutter is not committed to the Devils. A faulty statement when you consider he did the same thing last summer, and obviously came back. For those who are still worried, however, John Fischer from In Lou We Trust, one of the best Devils blogs on the web, gives us some reassurance via simple logic.

“First, Sutter is actually open about this evaluation. Yes, he’s repeating the same message; but he’s actually engaging questions about it. If Sutter were truly thinking of leaving, then I would think the best thing for him to do would be to stay quiet to the media and simply just consult with Lou. Instead, he’s stating that any rumors of him coaching elsewhere aren’t true and that the playoff loss — shocking as it was — won’t effect his decision.”

All indications are that Sutter will be back, despite what the Canadian media wants you to believe. Just remember, they only WISH he would stay home and coach in Calgary or Edmonton because those two teams are in desperate need of new coaches.

Looking Ahead

On the free agent front, Lou Lamoriello has said only that he wants to re-sign all four Restricted Free Agents: Travis Zajac, Petr Vrana, Pierre-Luc Leblond, and Andy Greene. The Devils need to get younger in a hurry, and this would be a great way to do it. No news on the Unrestricteds, although expect Johnny Oduya to be priority #1, and either John Madden or Brian Gionta to return, but probably not both. Expect Scott Clemmensen to be retained only if he sees the market for him as a starter somewhere else is not as great as he thought it would be, which is probably not going to happen. If he does leave, however, Kevin Weekes will return.

Looking toward the draft, my pick would be David Rundblad, a great offensive defenseman from Sweden, if he’s still on the board. If not, look for the Devils to do what they always do and go off the beaten path. Also, look for the Devils to draft their first goaltender since Frazee in 2005. Surely, they cannot overlook this position for another year, right? (I said that last year also…)

Friday, May 1, 2009

Offseason 09: How to Fix the Devils

A while back, I had written a blog about how the Devils should handle their free agency situation this summer. Looking back over what I had written, I realized that since that time, a lot of things have changed. So now that the offseason is unfortunately upon us, I’d like to revisit placing myself in the GM’s chair. Here is what I would do in dealing with free agency and why.

Keep

Johnny Oduya
Oduya should be priority #1 for the Devils this offseason. Rather underrated, and the only major piece of our defense set to become unrestricted, he will command—and deserves—a significant raise from the $600,000 he made in ‘08-’09, and will deserve every penny of it. He’s only going to get better, and with every team needing good offensive defensemen, we’d be wise to lock him up now. Taking a look at our defense, keeping him together with Paul Martin will be critical in the coming years.

Travis Zajac
Zajac is set to become a restricted free agent, and Lou has already said he will make every effort to sign him long term. He and Zach Parise are our one-two punch of the future, and he should be treated and signed as such. His play dropped off toward the end, but early on in the season, he really broke free from his sophomore slump, and as he ages his play will become more consistent. With his new contract, however, he should be given a gym membership. He really needs to get stronger to become more effective.

Brian Gionta
I have nothing against Gionta, but this is a conditional “keep,” the condition being how much money he wants. Lou will have his maximum value set well in advance, and should Gionta want more, we can use his cap room for better things, while giving offensive youngsters like Nicklas Bergfors the chance to finally prove themselves in the proper environment, i.e. NOT 6 minutes a night on the fourth line, as was the case early this year. Gionta is a tireless worker who needs to produce more, but if he stays at the right price, it will be worth giving him that chance.

John Madden
This is another conditional “keep,” and for the same reason. Madden is one of the best defensive forwards in the game, an alternate captain, and an all-around team player. He is without a doubt one of our core players who must be re-signed, but only at the right price. Unfortunately, Jay Pandolfo is making $2.5 mil per year, which may dictate what Madden will ask for. It is hard to believe Madden and Gionta will both be back, but individually it should depend on how what they want will fit into our cap structure.

Andy Greene
An upcoming RFA, Greene has followed up a potential-filled first year with a couple of steadily improving performances. Greene is a keeper as long as he will not be relied upon to play like a top-four defensemen. Andy Greene is a third-pairing defensemen at best, and should be paid as such. No need to break the bank on him, if he really thinks he’s worth more then let him go, but as a member of the 5-6 pair on defense, you can’t do much better.

Mike Rupp
Rupp is in a conditional state as well. Pierre-Luc Leblond has emerged as a replacement, and although Rupp has the size advantage, Leblond may prove to be cheaper. Time will tell, but I am fine with either one of these two players or both returning. Someone needs to give David Clarkson some backup.

Petr Vrana
Like Nicklas Bergfors, Vrana deserves to play in the role he was designed for, which is not low-minute nights on the fourth line. Sign him and keep a spot for him open, especially if John Madden will not be returning. Vrana has always been called a mini-Madden, and if John thinks he’s worth more money than we’re offering, now would be the perfect time to begin grooming Vrana for the role long-term.

Kevin Weekes
You were waiting for this one, weren’t you? Which goalie to keep when both are UFA’s? Weekes will require less money, and is the ultimate teammate when he’s not playing. Unlike Clemmensen, he has no delusions of being a starter anymore. Clemmensen, meanwhile, has played phenomenal, but wants to become a full-time starter now, and that opportunity cannot come in New Jersey. I will say this, however: if Clemmensen is willing to sign on as Marty’s full-time backup again, then I would keep Clemmensen instead. I just doubt that is going to happen

Pierre-Luc Leblond
I love what Leblond brought to the lineup this year, and I think he is on the verge of becoming a full-timer. He is most likely a cheaper option than Mike Rupp, and should be signed long-term. Leblond will prove to be a key building block for the future.

Ditch

Niclas Havelid
Havelid is, by far, the worst trade deadline acquisition in Devils history. Sure, it looked good at the time, but he just never fit in on this team. Always out of position, always making stupid plays that you wouldn’t expect a veteran to make. I will personally drive him to the airport if it means he never has to appear in a Devils uniform again for the rest of time.

Bobby Holik
It’s time for Holik to inform the post office that his mail is to no longer be forwarded to the Devils penalty box. His stupid penalties cost us far too many times this year, and if we honestly expect to have a better fate next season, there’s no way he can be part of that.

Scott Clemmensen
You can read the explanation above under why we should keep Kevin Weekes, but I will summarize by saying that if Clemmensen decides he is willing to return as Marty’s backup, I’d rather keep him. I just don’t believe he is willing to do that.

Brendan Shanahan
I put him here because he’s probably going to retire anyway, but also because we’re a very old team right now, and that’s how you get yourself into salary cap trouble. I loved the concept of Shanahan coming back for this year to help us make a run, but now we need to start getting younger like everyone else. If, at the end of the summer, we have the cap room to bring him back for one more season, however, I am not opposed to it.

Let me just clarify that I do not expect every single player on the keep list to return next season. Many of them are on there because they should be considered for being kept, but with the salary cap situation the way it is, all of them will not be brought back, nor should they. For example, Madden is on there because it would be great if he stays, but Vrana is up there because it’s very likely that Madden will choose to leave. So interpret the list with caution.

So now that we did all that, what do we need to add to make the 2010 Devils even better? The key is defense, defense, defense. If this year taught us anything, it’s that you cannot rely on a group of minor-leaguers to fill out an NHL defense. Our top four of Martin, Oduya, Salvador, and White were capable, but those last two spots need a serious upgrading. It’s not that Mottau played bad, but our top six needs to be stronger and more talented. I would focus my efforts this summer on signing a veteran stalwart defenseman, who can give our backline a higher profile. Stay-at-home or puck-mover, it doesn’t really matter. The bottom line is that any effort in free agency should be spent on making our defense corps far better.

Other than that, I like the pieces we have, and as long as some of those prospects that have been stewing in the minors for four or five years finally get the chance to prove themselves, I don’t think we need to do a whole lot else.