Sunday, June 28, 2009

Reviewing the Devils Draft

I have to start by saying that the 2009 Draft was the first one where I actually did some research beyond the top five prospects. I went full on, putting together a list of the players that I liked in the order I liked them, as if I was prepared to walk out to the draft table myself. The reason for this, aside from the fact that its summer and I find myself with quite a bit more free time, is that the Devils have always been known as a draft monster, an integral piece of the consistent high level of play from the mid 1990s forward.

But for some reason, whether or not it was the depth of the draft classes or just some poor selections—after all, this is an inexact science—the Devils went through a rough patch from 1999 to 2002 where the two most successful draft picks they made were Mike Rupp (2000) and Cam Janssen (2002). A few wasted first round picks—Ari Ahonen (1999) and Adrian Foster (2001)—never did crack the NHL, and the results really hurt the cupboard. This four year gap was enough to cause the Devils to look elsewhere to build around their core players, namely free agency. This is not the way the Devils have ever worked, and so beginning with Zach Parise in the all-time great 2003 draft class, the draft renaissance has begun.

Now, while every GM and fan wishes that every pick they make in a draft would develop into an NHL-caliber player, the reality is you’re probably not going to get more than two out of each draft class unless you really get lucky. For example, Parise & Petr Vrana in 2003, Mattias Tedenby & Patrice Cormier in 2008, etc. So that has become my standard now; if a draft class has at least two players who have the potential to make the NHL one day, I consider it an early success. (Of course time will tell whether or not it was really a success, but I’m talking initial impressions here.)

So with all that out of the way, let’s turn our attention to the 2009 draft. While waiting for the Devils to pick at 23rd, I noticed an interesting trend emerging. Minnesota picked Minnesota native Nick Leddy, Montreal picked Montreal native Louis Leblanc…pretty soon I was starting to wonder if Montvale, NJ native Kyle Palmieri would be headed our way. Even though he was ranked 6th on my list, Rundblad had already gone to Columbus, Leblanc to Montreal, so I was confident it would either be Palmieri or Landon Ferraro, my highest ranked remaining player. This is not to say that I didn’t like our actual selection, Swedish forward Jacob Josefson. He didn’t have the greatest World Juniors tournament in the world, but Dan Labraaten, the Devils’ head European scout, had been following him for quite some time, and had seen enough to know the potential this kid has.

But it was more than just the selection of Josefson…it was where the Devils selected him. Originally slated to pick 23rd, the Devils traded up to get Calgary’s 20th pick, throwing in the lower of our two 3rd rounders for Calgary’s troubles. (Things that make you go hmmmm…..) I suppose we’ll never know whether Calgary agreeing to this trade was more a product of knowing that their guy Tim Erixon would not be taken before 23rd, or if it was a small agreed upon consolation for swiping away Brent Sutter two weeks after he resigned.

I’m getting off track here. Despite actually doing my research this time, one thing I’ve learned is that the Devils will always do what you don’t expect them to, so while I really liked the kind of player Landon Ferraro or Kyle Palmieri could turn out to be, the Devils chose Josefson. I happen to love the pick, I just didn’t see it coming. A 6’0" forward is a nice change from the constant stream of Gionta-sized players who are typically appealing to New Jersey.

Second round pick Eric Gelinas is a 6’4" defenseman described as a young Chris Pronger. Should he pan out as expected, that right there are your two high potential picks. Rounds 3-7 saw the Devils take three more defensemen and two left wings, all above 6’0". There’s no question that size is a priority on the Devils of the future. There appear to be no late round gems a la Cormier, but we may have the huge linemate who can cash in on the rebound from a Cormier shot.

It is worth noting that once again, no goaltenders were selected. Jeff Frazee (2005) remains the last one, and though he is developing well, he’s going to need some backup. Lou Lamoriello, to his credit, said that the goalie they had been targeting was gone, so I can only assume they liked Koskinen as much as I did, though he got snatched up 31st overall. It’s nice to know they recognize the need there, but sooner or later we’re going to actually draft a goalie in the first round to avoid this happening again. I know they don’t want to take a goalie just to have one, they really want him to be “the one,” but with plenty of depth at forward and defense recently drafted, now is the time to seriously consider taking a goaltender with a first round pick. Drafting on a “best player available” basis for a long time is a great thing, except when you have a serious lack of depth at a certain position. Even if its one quality goaltender and then back to the same old philosophy, Jeff Frazee cannot hold down the farm on his own. Free agency is a fine temporary solution, but with the salary cap in jeopardy for the forseeable future, the more entry level contracts on your books, the better off you’ll be.

That was a lot to say about one problem, I know, and aside from that the 2009 draft was a successful one for the Devils. I’ll give it a B+ for two quality prospects.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

An Open Letter to the Future Coach of the New Jersey Devils

An open letter to the future coach of the New Jersey Devils

Dear Future Coach,

First of all, welcome! You have just signed on for a job that requires seemingly no good reason to be fired. In fact, no Devils coach has lasted more than three years since Jacques Lemaire stepped down in 1998. Incidentally, if you happen to be Jacques Lemaire, welcome back—and please know that if you try to implement the trap again, I will be calling for your head on a platter shortly.

Now, one thing you’ll need to learn rather quickly is that in many ways you are more a figurehead than anything else; Lou Lamoriello will coach the team vicariously through you. In fact, the only thing stopping the Devils’ President/CEO/General Manager/Head Ticket Salesman/Janitor/Popcorn Vendor/Backup Goaltender/Usher/Zamboni Driver from doing your job anyway is that it just seems like so much more work!

But there’s no going back now, you’re the guy! (Unless you miss your “family,” and by “family” you mean your brother who happens to be the GM of another team.) So before you begin your tenure behind the Devils bench, allow me to offer a few suggestions to help you make the most of your stay:

1. The system. Is down.
See, here at the New Jersey Devils, we feel like Brent was this guy we were seeing for a few years, and even though he had a lot of potential, he was afraid of commitment. But as far as what he did with the way the Devils play, we couldn’t have asked for more. It doesn’t matter what you think about defense winning championships, look at who we have on defense now compared to 2003…we don’t have the horses required to play defense-first anymore. Besides, look at what we accomplished under our shiny new forechecking system. One of the highlights of this past season was beating the two best teams in the league—Boston and San Jose—on back-to-back nights. We have arguably the best group of forwards that we’ve had in years, and if we don’t continue playing to our strengths, you’ll quickly find yourself the new head coach of the unemployment line.

2. Who’s Line Is It Anyway?
Congratulations, as the new head coach of the Devils, you’ve inherited the biggest waste of $3.5 million a year in NHL history. Any coach worth his salt can see Dainius Zubrus as a third liner at best. Zubrus may have been a second liner in Sutter’s bizarro universe where Brian Rolston is a fourth liner, but here on Earth you and I both know Rolston belongs with Elias. Otherwise, don’t be shocked when he doesn’t put up the numbers you expect of him.

3. The Kids Are Alright
We’ve got some great young prospects here, and a few of them might be ready to hit the NHL for good. Should you find yourself with Nicklas Bergfors on your lineup card, the appropriate thing to do is either put him on the top two lines, or scratch him. Bergfors is an offensive player whose role is to produce on a team’s top two lines. The last guy who had your job decided to play him on the fourth line, for around three minutes a night, and then scratched him because he “wasn’t producing.” How could he be expected to do anything when he barely played, and had to rely on linemates like Mike Rupp and Bobby Holik to help him get on the scoresheet? … Exactly.

Well, that about wraps it up. I hope that this helps you become adjusted to what you’re about to undertake. So, to summarize, understand your position under Lou, keep the offensive system, put together realistic lines, and play the kids properly when you have them, and you should be just fine. Unless of course Lou wakes up one day on the wrong side of the bed.

Best of luck,
The Jersey Devil

Monday, June 15, 2009

Top Five Potential Draft Selections

First thing’s first, congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins! Once the Devils were eliminated they became my adopted team from the East, and while my adopted team from the West, Chicago, did not make it to the finals, Pittsburgh both made it and won. I’m also happy for a pair of former Devils—Bill Guerin’s only other Stanley Cup came here in Jersey back in his rookie year of 1995, and while Sykora was part of the winning team of 2000, he had to watch the celebration from the hospital after being injured during game 6. But obviously there’s a big difference between skating around with the Cup yourself and watching Larry Robinson on TV with your jersey on representing you doing so.

So with the NHL season now officially complete, and since I already covered the NHL awards, it’s time to turn our attention to the draft. Predicting what the Devils will do in the draft is nearly impossible because Lou Lamoriello and draft day guru David Conte have made a habit of going off the board and doing something unexpected. It has become a trend for the Devils to trade down from their original spot, still get the player they wanted because no one else saw in them what the Devils did, and use the extra draft picks to their advantage. It’s the reason that, save for a rough patch between 1999 and 2002, the Devils have become notorious as one of the best drafting teams in the NHL. Based on the current progress of the players chosen in last year’s draft, it would seem the Devils have struck gold. Mattias Tedenby is a flashy player, Brandon Burlon is a great standup defenseman, and Patrice Cormier has really made a case for himself between the World Juniors and the Memorial Cup.

But let’s turn our attention to the 2009 draft coming up in Montreal, and more specifically who the Devils will take first. Providing the Devils do not trade down, though they always seem to, they will make their first pick at 23rd overall. So taking into consideration team needs, as well as who will already be gone by the time the Devils hit the podium, here are the top five players I think the Devils should choose if they have the chance.

(Scouting information supplied by The Hockey News’ Future Watch 2009.)

5. Kyle Palmieri – C / 5’10" / Montvale, NJ / US NTDP / ISS #21
Described as a good skater who works hard, Palmieri presents many factors which make him an attractive pick. He’s a Jersey kid, his brother Nick is already in the Devils’ system, and the Devils have historically groomed kids of his description into solid NHL players (see Gionta, Brian & Parise, Zach). The two-way forward is headed for Notre Dame this fall, and seems to fit every category the Devils have historically loved about young forwards.

4. Louis Leblanc – C / 6’0" / Kirkland, QC / Omaha (USHL) / ISS #16
Another two-way center, Leblanc has what most teams want in a young forward; the ability to put up a lot of points without lacking ability on the defensive side of the puck. In his first year in the USHL, Leblanc went about a point a game in a league where most players simply don’t do that, and was named the USHL rookie of the year. This combination of skills makes him a worthwhile pick on draft day.

3. Mikko Koskinen – G / 6’7" / Vantaa, FIN / Espoo (Fin.) / ISS N/R
The last goaltender drafted by the Devils was Jeff Frazee back in 2005, and while he is currently projected as starting goaltender of the future, the Devils are in serious need of a backup plan in case he doesn’t pan out as expected. Koskinen has a huge frame and solid numbers to his credit (17-7-9, 1.91 GAA, .931 SV% last year with Espoo), but his late bloomer status means teams will be hard pressed to take him seriously after slipping through the past three drafts unselected. He’s a high risk/high reward pick, but a risk worth taking if both of the top two players on this list are unavailable.

2. Landon Ferraro – R / 6’0" / Burnaby, BC / Red Deer (WHL) / ISS #18
About a month ago, Ferraro’s biggest asset to the Devils was his spot on Red Deer’s roster and the connection to Brent Sutter. But the son of Ray Ferraro needs no such connections with the level of skill he has. The Rebels sniper’s only blemish is his defensive game, but consider how bad a team Red Deer is, and how well New Jersey teaches defense, and suddenly that isn’t enough to hurt his case. He is strong in every other area of his game, and his skating, work ethic, and strong mental game will go a long way on a team suddenly intent on drafting for offense.

1. David Rundblad – D / 6’2" / Lycksele, SWE / Skelleftea (SWE) / ISS #31
Despite his ranking, Rundblad has everything the Devils could want in a first round draft pick. He’s a full-on offensive defenseman who has great puck skills, the ability to quarterback a powerplay, and the potential to end up a top-pair NHL defenseman one day. His defensive game is questionable, but again, if there’s one thing the Devils can teach, it’s defense, especially when Larry Robinson works with your young defensemen. The big question is, will he still be available when New Jersey goes on the clock? If he is, the Devils should pounce on him or forever regret not doing so. With all of the focus on Hedman, Rundblad is the kind of under-the-radar player the Devils love, but still has more than enough skill to qualify a first round pick with. If Rundblad is still on the board at pick #23, or wherever the Devils may trade down to, not selecting him would be downright foolish, and a wasted opportunity at building on the promise of the 2008 draft.

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Remember This Name

Since the resignation of Brent Sutter, many names have been tossed about as far as prospective replacements, from the expected (John MacLean), to the qualified (Peter Laviolette), to the downright strange (Ted Nolan). But if the Lamoriello-run Devils are notorious for anything, it’s going off the board. When everyone at the 1990 draft loved Trevor Kidd, the Devils loved Martin Brodeur. When players like Brian Rafalski and John Madden went undrafted, the Devils decided to give them a chance. And while most people are convinced the next head coach of the Devils will be off the expected list of candidates, NorthJersey.com believes otherwise, and have certainly converted me in the process.

LINK: Haviland the Best Choice for Devils

The above article pegs current Chicago assistant coach Mike Haviland as the man for the job, and despite his name’s resemblance to Niclas Havelid, you don’t need to look very far into his bio to find out why.

Sure, as the article says, “he won ECHL titles as a head coach with Atlantic City and Trenton and then coached the Blackhawks’ AHL affiliate (in Norfolk, Va,. and Rockford, Ill.) to three consecutive playoff appearances and was named the league’s coach of the year in 2006-07,” so he’s got plenty of winning experience, even before the recent success of the Blackhawks. And sure, “he has been a winner at every level with a winning percentage of at least .600 in six of his seven seasons as a minor league head coach with playoff berths in all seven seasons.”

But here’s the kicker: he’s from Middletown, New Jersey. His family has resided in Sea Girt, NJ for the duration of his coaching career. It’s ironic, but it also eliminates any possibility of pulling a Sutter.

Successful, experienced, a winner at heart, and he resides just a 45 minute shot down the Turnpike. Sounds like the perfect choice to me.

Good Riddance

I did not expect to have to write about this, though my foreshadowing blog would tell you otherwise, but the powers that be have forced my hand. Today, Brent Sutter has announced that he has resigned from the head coaching position for the Devils, deciding that he’d rather hang around Alberta and save his dying junior hockey team. Now as a statement on its own, that’s perfectly reasonable, but its the way in which this entire sequence of events transpired that has already left myself and many other Devils fans angry as hell.

Sutter has said all along that it was in his plans to re-evaluate his situation after every season. He did it in the summer of 2008, and decided to return. We knew this was coming sooner or later, so why all the anger? Well, from the moment a report came out from Canada during the season that Sutter might be considering leaving after the year, something was different about him. He continually wrote off the report, but the damage had been done. Watching the team the rest of the way, you couldn’t help but think that Sutter’s heart wasn’t really into it. I don’t claim to have experienced this personally, but I have heard numerous reports from fans who have met and talked to players that for as long as this report has existed, the players got uneasy when asked about Sutter. It would seem that he really lost the team at some point. The Devils were able to overcome a late March slump in time for the playoffs, but were outplayed and outmatched by Carolina. As a sidenote, I would suggest any new coach works the players to the brink of oblivion for two minutes every day, reminding them each time that it is makeup for the two minutes they decided not to try in game 7, but this is another story for another time.

So it is not the fact that Brent Sutter chose to be with his family and business, its the fact that if he even had to think about making the choice, he should not have been coaching or even thinking about coaching. Coaching in the NHL requires top priority in your life if that’s what you are going to undertake. Those coaches who are not fired first step down when they realize their heart is not 100% in their current coaching situation. They don’t say “oh I’ll think about it,” they just do it.

It’s also what a good coach he was for the Devils. He was the first to truly throw the defensive system out the window, and to only have a small dose of Lou’s kool-aid, not enough to govern the way he ran the team, as in…oh…every other coach that ever worked for Lou. It really appeared as if the era of Lou the dictator was over, that we’d finally have a coach who did what he really wanted to. And, at least until we hit the playoffs, we did as good if not better than in previous years under the regime.

But I’d rather have another puppet coach that truly wants to be there rather than an individual thinker whose heart was never really in it from the start. (Although if the Devils end up re-hiring Jacques Lemaire, prepare for another blog filled with both anger and statements which contradict what I’ve already said here, because that is NOT cool.) Sutter had the potential to do great things in New Jersey, and had he stayed a few more years may have gone down as one of the best coaches in Devils history. But alas, he’s had other priorities all along, and perhaps that would have caught up with him eventually.

So good riddance, Brent Sutter. Way to finish the job.

Monday, June 8, 2009

Russian Roulette

Nobody can debate the legitimacy of retiring Scott Stevens’ #4. He’s either the first or second best Devil of all time, and there is no debating that. Without his leadership, how many of those three Cups would we actually have? I’m not sure many people disagreed with Ken Daneyko’s #3 either, although there was more gray area involved. Daneyko was an original, heart and soul Devil, the second draft pick in team history, and survived the early lean years to become a part of the team’s first ever playoff run in 1988, as well as all three Cups.

But I want to focus this blog on future banners to hang from Prudential Center’s rafters. Now, if there ever was a guarantee, it’s that Martin Brodeur will have his number #30 retired. I’m also nearly positive that Patrik Elias’ #26 will hang as well. And although it’s way too early to tell, Zach Parise’s #9 could one day be honored as well, providing he remains a career Devil and does not experience an unfortunate permanent drop in his play.

And as for former Devils, the names Scott Niedermayer and Sergei Brylin have been kicked around. Although I disagree, I can see the argument for Niedermayer. A key piece in all three Cups, Niedermayer is also one of the greatest players in our history. But I disagree with retiring his number because he chose to leave us to go play with his brother in Anaheim, and is already cementing his place in their history. People are not as mad at him as they are at people like Scott Gomez, but the fact remains. Even if he didn’t leave for money like Gomez, he still left. He can say it was a hard decision, but I don’t think it was. We all knew he wanted to win a Cup with his brother, he didn’t even look that happy when we won in 2003 because he was more concerned about how his brother felt about losing. But like I said, he made his mark on the Devils, and although I don’t agree with retiring his number, I can live with it if it happens. Besides, it’s not like Mike Mottau is going to take over the legacy or anything.

And then there’s Sergei Brylin. I cannot, and will not, ever understand the groundswell of support by Devils fans to immortalize #18. Like Daneyko, Brylin was certainly a soldier, and he certainly was on the team for all three Cups. But unlike Daneyko, Brylin hardly had anything to do with them aside from a goal in game 4 of the 1995 Cup Finals. Neal Broten and Shawn Chambers also scored in that clinching game, but you don’t see any rush on retiring their numbers. Brylin had a largely nondescript career, the kind of career where if you asked any non-Devils fan about Sergei Brylin, they’d probably tell you he succeeded Lenin as dictator of the Soviet Union.

So Devils nation, I implore you, why on earth do you want this man immortalized, hanging forever amongst the likes of Stevens, Brodeur, and Elias? He did not contribute anywhere close to as much as those three did to the success of the Devils. In fact, the only reason this skating basket of laundry was even still a Devil since the late 1990s was the immense loyalty of Lou Lamoriello, who has a tendency to blindly reward those who have done him good at some point, even if all signs of talent have simply gone out the window. (Jay Pandolfo at $2.5 million for the next 2 years anyone?)

Go ahead and look up Sergei Brylin’s stats, please. Or better yet, watch any Devils game from 1998 forward. Let me know if you even notice #18 in red, let alone notice him doing something productive. I think you’ll find that there’s a better chance of the name “SHANAHAN” hanging above a #18 banner.