Looking Ahead

Predicting how a team will fare in this post-lockout, parity-heavy NHL is harder than finding the Stanley Cup in the ocean. Hot streaks, cold streaks, injuries, Sean Avery…the modern NHL is an unpredictable world. So while I’m cautiously optimistic about the Devils’ chances this season, there are a few areas to which I can offer my input as to how things either will or should unfold which hopefully require far less fortune-telling ability.

Trade Deadline

One of two things will happen on Magical March 4th. Either the Devils will look to upgrade their defense at the expense of upcoming UFA Brian Gionta, or…nothing. Especially if things remain basically unchanged, and the Devils continue to win in bunches followed by dropping a few here and there, I don’t really see the need to shake things up or add any pieces. As it stands, the glaring holes from last year have been filled, and this year’s team has shown incredible resolve. Just when everyone thought the Devils were out of the race—both when Brodeur went down Nov. 1 and multiple times since—the Devils bounced back. For that, I see no reason why standing pat, or perhaps swapping prospects, isn’t the right move.

Goalie Controversy

First of all, hockey media, there is no controversy. Martin Brodeur is the greatest goalie of the modern era, and when he comes back, he’ll play. But whether he returns February 26, March 1, or any other time in that general area, the sample size of games will likely be too small to determine if he’s back at 100%. Because of this, we will not trade Scott Clemmensen or Kevin Weekes, both set to become free agents at year’s end. Rather, we will do as the Edmonton Oilers have done before us, keeping all three goalies, with either Clemmensen or Weekes being chosen to warm the chair in the press box on a per-game basis. So what happens at the end of the season? Well, that ties into the next category…

Draft

My belief is that Clemmensen, who will surely want far more than $500,000 for his services after his performance this year, will be dealt on draft day to a team in need of goaltending. It will be one of those deals whereby it only goes through if Clemmensen agrees to sign a new contract with the team he is traded to. As for what we should receive in return, most likely draft picks or a decent defenseman.

Now, onto the draft itself. While the “experts” have started to publish their mock drafts, I believe that no matter how much research goes into who the Devils should take, they have historically always gone off the board, so don’t bother. Last year, after three years of selecting zero goaltenders, I thought for sure they’d take Jakob Markstrom. Of course I’m happy with offensive stalwart Mattias Tedenby, I just didn’t see it coming…so I don’t want to speculate. All I will say is that we should draft at least one goalie this time around; we’re a little overdue. Our crop of forward and defensive prospects are looking mighty fine, but goaltending could actually be a weakness for the Devils of the future unless we act now.

Free Agency

Lou Lamoriello would probably be the first to admit that he’s made some mistakes in his day at this time of year (see Dan McGillis, the returns of Alexander Mogilny and Vladimir Malakhov) but he got it right in ‘08. Summer 2009, in my opinion, should mostly be spent locking up core players. I divided this section into who should stay, who should go, and then what we need to look for in terms of bringing in new players.

Keep:

John Madden. In my mind, this is priority #1 this offseason. One of the best defensive forwards in the game, alternate captain, all-around team player. Without a doubt one of our core players who must be re-signed.

Johnny Oduya. Rather underrated, and the only major piece of our defense set to become unrestricted. He will command—and deserves—a significant raise from the $600,000 he’s making this year. He’s only going to get better, and with every team needing good offensive defensemen, we’d be wise to lock him up now.

Travis Zajac. Zajac is set to become a restricted free agent, which is why he doesn’t rank as high on the list. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t make every effort to sign him long term. He and Zach Parise are our one-two punch of the future, and he should be treated and signed as such.

Bobby Holik. Give him one more year. He deserves it. He’s not going to rack up the points, but there isn’t a better veteran presence to have in a locker room. He’s always honest and always speaks his mind, and when the team needs a kick in the rear, no one else can do it like Bobby.

Mike Rupp. Unless Lou has plans to bring in a different heavyweight, Rupp needs to be brought back. Clarkson is more of a pest than anything, and can’t really handle the big boys. If we don’t keep Rupp that’s fine, but we better get a different giant who can fight with the best of them instead.

Kevin Weekes. You were waiting for this one, weren’t you? Which goalie to keep when both are UFA’s? Weekes will require less money for about equal talent. Besides, he’s the ultimate teammate when he’s not playing, and he has no delusions of being a starter anymore. Clemmensen, meanwhile, has played phenomenal, but wants to become a full-time starter now, and that opportunity cannot come in New Jersey. He’ll make his money and play his minutes elsewhere. Keep Weekes.

Petr Vrana. Like Nicklas Bergfors, Vrana deserves to play in the role he was designed for, which is not low-minute nights on the fourth line. As you’ll read below, getting a few salaries/roster spots off the books will enable our top-end prospects like Bergfors and Vrana the chance to develop at the NHL level. Sign him and keep a spot for him open.

Anssi Salmela. I say keep him, but only if you’re actually going to use him at the NHL level. He has an absolute cannon of a shot, and is probably not happy about so much AHL time while useless players like Mike Mottau are allowed to play in New Jersey. If I were him, I wouldn’t sign unless I was promised more time in the NHL. If not, back to Finland.

Ditch:

Brian Gionta. I have nothing against Gionta, but facts are facts. He’s going to want more than he’s worth, and no player who thinks like that stays in Jersey. We can use his cap room for better things, while giving offensive youngsters like Nicklas Bergfors the chance to finally prove themselves in the proper environment, i.e. NOT 6 minutes a night on the fourth line, as was the case early this year.

Scott Clemmensen. You can read the explanation above under why we should keep Kevin Weekes. Clemmensen will be better off on a team with little goaltending depth.

Brendan Shanahan. I put him here because he’s probably going to retire anyway, but also because we’re a very old team right now, and that’s how you get yourself into salary cap trouble. I love the concept of Shanahan coming back for this year to help us make a run, but after that we need to start getting younger like everyone else.

Andy Greene. An upcoming RFA, Greene is not necessarily a bad player, but we have a nice crop of blooming defensive prospects on the way (Matt Corrente, Tyler Eckford, etc.) while Greene has followed up a potential-filled first year with a couple of nondescript performances. The more entry-level deals on our books, the better.

So now that we did all that, what do we need to add to make the 2010 Devils even better? Well unfortunately, we’re no different than the other 29 teams. Since losing Rafalski, we’ve seriously needed a top-end puck moving defenseman. Other than that, I like the pieces we have, and as long as some of those prospects that have been stewing in the minors for four or five years finally get the chance to prove themselves, I don’t think we need to do a whole lot else.